If Ukraine neither opens the market nor attracts global capital in 6-8 months, the world will build this industry without it.
Anton Melnyk, co-founder of the defense fund MITS Capital, announced it at the Radio NV event “Defense Industry 2026. Efficiency, Development, Scalability”.
He noted, “As one famous person said at the end of last year: Either we change or we perish. We have started to change a little bit and that’s good. But today I will say by myself: either we change quickly, here and now, or we will all perish again this year. We don’t have much time. In fact, we have just six months for our defense industry. Maximum eight months… we have not enough time”.
Mr. Melnyk said, foreign partners already have a head start. Co-founder of the defense fund MITS Capital added, “If they don’t come here, if they neither create joint ventures nor invest, they’ll just copy and do it themselves”, having emphasized that either we’ll tie them down or they’ll do it without us.
As for exports, Mr. Melnyk noted that technical problem of exports can be solved in hours. He highlighted, “It’s technically and administratively closed. It can also be technically and administratively open”, having noted that it doesn’t matter how it happens: either through the State Export Control Service of Ukraine or through Defence City. Co-founder of the defense fund stated, “It’s important that the system is as open as possible”.
He also highlighted that a closed market kills investment, “It’s not just about leftover production. It’s about startups and companies that have grown into manufacturers of components and technologies. They need investment stability”, having noted that if an investor sees a closed market, he will not invest.
Mr. Melnyk emphasized, “Now either superstar foreigners or patriotic Ukrainian funds are investing. But this is not systemic capital”.
He says that the Ukrainian defense industry needs three key resources: time, people and money. “There is no time. People still left. There is enough money worldwide, we need it but for this purpose we need a world market”.
Regarding defense technologies, Mr. Melnyk noted that Defense Tech will grow in the next 20 years and transform into robotics within 10 years. Ukraine has received a technological and entrepreneurial explosion. Co-founder of the defense fund MITS Capital warned, “This chance can be lost”.
Regarding global players in the worldwide defense industry market who are already copying Ukraine, he stated: “Partners come, look, copy. FPV, which they used to laugh at, is now being made by Americans and they are proud of it”, having emphasized that there is not enough time for this.
He also stated that a technological race is underway at the front. “The enemy is using drones-queens, strikes hundreds of kilometers away, Lancets. We see long-range strikes in the rear”.
Speaking about urgent decisions, he emphasized, “Decisions need to be made in the coming months. I hope Mykhailo Fedorov will speed up this process”. He also noted that even without actual exports, an open market changes the investment logic.
In respect of joint ventures, Melnyk highlighted: “NATO has a longstanding practice in joint ventures between the countries. We need to do the same, from small to large companies”.
Finally, co-founder of the defense fund emphasized, “The USA is closing the component market. China may limit supply of engines and magnets. If this happens, FPV may run out in three months. Therefore, we need to diversify engines, magnets, missiles, heavy equipment and others. We need a comprehensive military industry. We have no time. We need solutions now”.
Source: ОПК України — Критичні шість місяців для розвитку та інвестиційних рішень / NV