For two years now, Russia has been systematically destroying the Ukrainian agricultural sector, threatening global food security.

In research prepared for the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory, experts examined the loss of fertile land, explosive contamination, damage from the explosion of the Kakhovka Dam, loss of agricultural infrastructure, and damage from the militarisation of the Black Sea. They also analysed the prospects for the recovery of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and the need to protect infrastructure, ports, and trade routes from enemy attacks.

Key findings:

  • Ukraine’s agricultural sector has suffered more than $80 billion of direct losses and damage as a result of the full-scale invasion.
  • The areas directly affected by the hostilities accounted for about 36% of pre-war grain production.
  • 1/3 of agricultural companies left the market. Another 10-20% may leave in 2023/24 MY, given the current working conditions. About 2,653 agricultural enterprises suffered losses. Over 90% of small farmers suffer losses.
  • The area of temporarily occupied agricultural land in Ukraine reaches 8.0 million hectares (6.2 million hectares excluding Crimea).
  • Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam caused Ukraine losses worth almost $14 billion. 90% of the irrigation canals have dried up. 
  • Water supply to 31 irrigation systems in Dnipro, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions was stopped. In 2021, they provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares, from which they harvested about 4 million tons of grain and oil crops worth $1.5 billion.
  • 174 thousand km2 of Ukraine’s territory (almost 30%) was assessed as potentially contaminated with mines and explosive remnants of war. This is the total area of such countries as Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Denmark.
  • The production of major crops in 2024 could reach 79.8 million tons, which is only 900 thousand tons less than in 2023. But this is a significantly lower production rate compared to the period before the full-scale invasion (season 2021-2022).