EBRD NOTES: PRIVATE SECTOR SERVES AS BASIS FOR RESTORATION OF UKRAINE

Appropriate support from one of the most powerful donors and grant-makers in Ukraine can be quickly deployed in two areas in this field.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provides active assistance to Ukraine, focusing on resourcefulness and assistance to the private sector.

The corresponding projects aroused the interest of EBRD partners in restoration of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, as reported at the meeting in London held between Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine – Minister of Economy of Ukraine, and Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the EBRD.

The EBRD provided for Ukraine assistance for two years amounting to EUR 3.8 billion: what are the priority areas

Yuliia Svyrydenko noted at the meeting, “The EBRD is concerned in the private sector serving as basis for recovery of Ukraine. This year, the Bank will continue to support Ukrainian business: some specific projects have already been developed in power supply, production, logistics, agricultural sector and many others. Since the private sector will serve as basis for recovery of Ukraine, it is important for us to coordinate our efforts of international financial institutions for a more effective and large-scale reconstruction of Ukraine with an emphasis on the private sector”.

Discussion at the meeting concerned a practical algorithm for launching business insurance against war risks, in particular, tools for vessel and cargo insurance either en route or at the warehouses.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provided to Ukraine EUR 2.1 billion in 2023, as compared to EUR 1.7 billion in 2022. The EBRD, as the largest institutional investor in Ukraine, has significantly increased its investments since the large-scale Russian invasion in February 2022: just in October 2023 the Bank exceeded its goal of investing EUR 3 billion in Ukraine during 2022-2023.

In 2023, the EBRD management decided to increase the Bank’s paid-up capital by EUR 4 billion up to EUR 34 billion in order to provide further support to Ukraine. Investments in Ukraine during the war are planned to keep the level of EUR 1.5 billion per year.

During 2022-2023, the EBRD managed to mobilize ca. EUR 1.6 billion of donor funds for Ukraine, including unfunded guarantees. Of  this amount, over EUR 409 million were allocated in 2023. Almost half of the donor resources were provided by the European Union. Individual donors also made significant contributions, such as Canada, Norway, Spain and the Netherlands.

Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), highlighted the fact of enormous support of Ukraine from the West. She notes, it overshadows the Marshall Plan (the US plan to rebuild Europe after the Second World War). Her statement came in response to critics who say that Kyiv’s allies have not done enough to support it, as well as amid talk of the need to seize frozen Russian assets in favor of Ukraine.

Source – https://zn.ua/ukr/business/jebrr-vvazhaje-privatnij-sektor-osnovoju-vidnovlennja-ukrajini.html

Ukraine: how to ‘build back better’?

Ukraine’s recovery will require enormous human and financial resources. As of March 2023, Ukraine’s reconstruction is estimated to cost $411bn, which is 2.6 times Ukraine’s expected 2022 gross domestic product. Over the past 60 years, no single conflict or disaster has involved recovery estimated at more than the Marshall Plan – the equivalent of $140bn by today’s value – so the Ukrainian case will be unique.

The rebuild will impact every sphere of public life. Specific mechanisms are currently being discussed, with legal aspects of the rebuild being one of the key areas for consideration. Below are some other key aspects of the rebuilding of Ukraine to think about.

Time is money (return to pre-war gross domestic product)

It took countries that were able to recover (return to pre-war gross domestic product) after the Second World War five to ten years to do so, but many countries either did not recover at all, or took decades to recover. The average amount of financial aid received by countries for recovery after armed conflicts is 40 per cent of their losses.

To keep it simple, the sources for financial rebuild can be broken down as follows:

  1. the state budget of Ukraine;
  2. donors;
  3. development banks;
  4. confiscated Russian assets and reparations; and
  5. private money from investors.

This matrix clearly illustrates that each source has its limitations and specific solutions.

Ukraine is currently ‘out of budget’ for recovery – everything is spent on social and defence needs. Sovereign donors, international financial institutions and development banks have their terms and time limitations. Other cases of war recovery illustrate that during the first five to ten years the international donors cover only approximately 50 per cent of the country’s budget.

The confiscation of Russian assets is an ever-matchless sanctions enforcement case. The Government of the Netherlands officially agreed to create the ‘Register of Damages Caused to Ukraine by Russian Aggression’. It will contain information about the war-caused damage suffered by individuals, businesses and the state of Ukraine. Under the rules of international law, this Register should become the first component of a comprehensive reparations mechanism designed to ensure that the aggressor state pays Ukraine full reparations for the damage caused. However, the lawyers are well aware that it will take years, not months to get there.

Money is not a guarantee of success

Although the topic of post-war recovery is not extensively covered by academic research, most experts believe that the amount of recovery aid is usually not related to the success or failure of the countries’ further economic development. In simple words, having money for rebuild does not necessarily lead to quick and sustainable reconstruction.

For example, both social and commercial infrastructure is one of the obvious priorities to start with. However, such cases as the rebuilding of Afghanistan or Iraq prove that the quick restoration of infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a ‘magical’ re-start of the economy. When the sums of donor money eventually decrease but the private business has not jump-started yet, there is still a long way to go for a full recovery.

The important aspect of the rebuild

The social considerations are the most critical for the visionary rebuild plan. The stimulation of the private sector is essential, among other things, for the fight against unemployment, depopulation and brain-drain. Rebuilding a better labour market and competitive economy to which out-migrants might want to return is a challenging task for the Ukrainian government.

The  need for complex educational reform and social reform for the reintegration of veterans will thus need to be stimulated by the upgrade of extremely outdated labour and social regulations in Ukraine. So far, Ukraine still uses the outdated Soviet Labour Code of Ukraine, which doesn’t address the needs of a modern digitalised economy, creative industries or inclusivity criteria.

Can the EU integration boost recovery?

Integration into the global economic system has a high impact on recovery and economic development. Ukraine obtained its European Union candidate status on 23 June 2022 and targets a two-year sprint to join the EU.

Recently, the Parliament of Ukraine established a project office to tackle the harmonisation of Ukrainian laws with EU regulations. The four priority areas of the EU integration review of Ukrainian laws have been named: environment; intellectual property; financial services; and consumer rights and health protection. Therefore, those industries will soon face an upgrade of regulation and related compliance tasks.

Is there a magic pill?

Successful cases of rebuilding have one thing in common – the participation of private businesses in recovery (for example, Croatia, or Korea after 1961). Local business, as well as foreign investors, will become the key components to kickstarting the economy while the donor money is still there.

However, there are bottlenecks for private sector engagement. The first one, until the war is over, is the political and war risks insurance. The donors, along with Ukraine and the international insurance industry, will need to offer reasonably priced insurance solutions to allow the bravest to be first to invest. Insurance solutions offered by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and the export-import agencies are being discussed as the only ones available so far, but these are not seen as fundamentally ‘changing the game’. Therefore, many strategic investors will sit and wait until the active war is over.

On the other hand, at present the ‘national champions’ for investments are already identified. The infrastructure and energy sectors – with a focus on renewables and green rebuilding – come first. The traditionally strong sectors, such as IT, agriculture and processing, come after. The new leaders, such as defence and military, healthcare and education, will not be far behind. For example, de-mining, defence technology and prosthetics healthcare are already termed the new sectors to watch and invest in. For some of them, the special tax regime is argued to skyrocket the growth of new industry ecosystems.

Furthermore, the so far unexplored tools to succeed are being discussed by Ukraine. The first one is a sovereign wealth fund of Ukraine, which will manage the cherry-picked state-owned assets according to world-class standards. Another one is an investment fund solution that will help to attract international private money to Ukraine, backed up by state presence and guarantees. The latter was recently announced: Ukraine will work with BlackRock and J.P. Morgan to form a development entity that will become the first investment driver for the first projects and help open Ukraine to worldwide businesses.

Conclusion

So, what could be a ‘game changer’ for a significant inflow of foreign capital? The liberalisation/de-regulation reforms and the rule of law are the key pillars. Tax administration and law enforcement reforms, as well as the continuation of the judiciary reform, are named among top three priorities.

Anti-corruption reform continues to be of the highest priority, as it was long overdue even before the war. Actually, it is the name for more complex problems of a formerly socialist developing economy – inefficient non-digital government services, overcrowded and ineffective public service with uncompetitive salaries, and bad governance of state-owned enterprises.

With the above commitment, Ukraine could become the most attractive country in Europe (at least) for impact investors. What does it mean to do impact investing? It is an investor with a focus on the companies that create measurable, positive change in addition to generating a bare financial return. Impact investors are also often called ‘ESG investors’ since they consider the environmental, social and corporate governance standards and further impact. Such investors are more than welcomed into Ukraine for obvious reasons.

Ukraine should not rebuild the past, but rather leapfrog for rebuilding the country sustainably, innovatively and inclusively. Becoming a magnet for investors that contribute to the growth of all industries could become the Ukrainian national strategy for decades.

Source – iBanet.org

International Register of Damage

What is the Register of Damage, and how does it work with the Diia Register? How to get there, with what money, and according to what estimate will compensations be made to the victims? We talked about these pressing issues with the executive director of the International Registry of Damage, Markiyan Klyuchkovskyi.

  • On June 27, 2023, the member states of the International Register of Damages Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation Against Ukraine appointed Markiyan Klyuchkovskyi as the Executive Director of the Register.
  • Previously, Markiyan was a partner at Asters, where he co-chaired the practice of international arbitration and litigation, and after the full-scale invasion of Russia, he became a member of the working group on the development and implementation of international legal remedies for compensation for damages caused to Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation.

Olya Veretilnyk (Dead Lawyers Society) entered into a criminal conspiracy with Yura Gaidai (Centre for Economic Strategy) in order to record an interview with Markiyan. This intention was defiantly implemented.

What is the International Register of Damage, and why did you create it?

There is no mechanism that actually exists today; it needs to be created from scratch. There are many reasons for this. One of them is Russia’s right to veto in the UN Security Council. And, obviously, Russia’s lack of consent to voluntarily cooperate in creating such a mechanism. And this is not an easy way because we do not have the opportunity to rely on any existing precedent in such work.

In the spring of 2022, a group of lawyers in which I was engaged began work on the creation of what we call a compensation mechanism for Ukraine, or a reparation mechanism.

The compensation mechanism we offer consists of three components.

The first component is, in fact, a register of damage, which should record information about losses, damages, injuries, and other similar things that Ukraine and Ukrainians suffered during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The second component of this mechanism is the compensation commission. This is the body that will review these stigmas and decide how much damages should be compensated in each specific case.

And the third component is the compensation fund, which accumulates funds from which, in fact, these payments will be made. This fund will be filled either by Russia voluntarily, or we will get to the Russian assets on our own and collect them for the benefit of this fund.

The Register of Damage is only the first component of this mechanism. We announced its creation in May this year. Now, we are preparing for its full operational launch so that people, companies, and government bodies can register their requirements there.

Here it is worth emphasizing that both Ukraine and other countries understand very well that the register itself, no matter how cool it is, is meaningless. This damage database does nothing for actual damages. That is why it is written in the Charter of the Register that this is only the first component of the compensation mechanism, and the states will move towards the creation of its other components.

That is, in addition to the register itself, there will be a commission that will evaluate the information in the register, but it is not there yet.

Yes, absolutely. This is a quasi-judicial body that will consider all claims. Essentially, assess their credibility, assess the amount of damage caused in each specific case, and award the amount to be compensated.

It really isn’t there yet; negotiations are currently underway. This is a difficult process because we have nothing to rely on as a direct precedent when such a mechanism would be created without the consent of the opposite party.

When will it be possible to submit information about the causing of damages, who can do it, and in what format, if it already exists?

According to our plan and according to the rules described in the Charter, citizens, companies, and the state of Ukraine can submit complaints and information about damages. Roughly speaking, any person who has suffered the damage can do it.

This will all be made exclusively in digital form through a platform that is currently being created.

As soon as this digital platform or at least its first components are ready, we will immediately open the window for submission of claims. Optimistically, this should happen by the end of the year. Perhaps this is too optimistic, and we will look at the beginning of the next one, but we are moving as quickly as possible so that while the evidence of everything that is happening in Ukraine is still fresh, people, companies, and the state have the opportunity to record everything.

There is now an option to apply for registration of damage via Diia – is this some sort of parallel process to what is happening with the International Register of Damage?

They cannot be called completely parallel because they pursue slightly different goals.

Although this mechanism via Diia you mentioned is a register of damaged and destroyed property, what is paid on it is called compensation, but in reality, it is not compensation at all.

This, in general, is the Ukrainian state providing a helping hand to those who need it most for the reconstruction of housing and other property. And provides relatively small amounts for this, let’s say so. But at the same time, this register is such an aggregator and a source of information about damages, at least in certain segments of the economy, specifically with reference to the persons who suffered.

This mechanism really has several connections with the international register we are talking about. First, you rightly say it is a kind of information aggregator. However, it will not automatically flow or transfer from one place to another. But since all this information is digital, it is much easier to do.

Moreover, we communicate a lot with the developers of the register of damaged and destroyed property, actually from a technical point of view, to make the systems as compatible as possible with each other so that this process is as simple and painless as possible.

The second moment in which they interact with each other is that to the extent that the state pays compensation to citizens, it receives the right to claim the aggressor state for the same amounts.

So, is this a kind of regression?

A kind of regression, absolutely. Although, of course, if citizens believe that their losses are greater than what they have been compensated [they can contact the register].

The Ukrainian state has the unconditional right and all the possibilities to claim damages from Russia to register these claims already in the International Register. That’s why I say that these are not exactly parallel things; they have some compatibility, but in a global sense, they just pursue different goals. We are trying to make them as compatible as possible and use the existing developments.

How do you plan to verify the information on the causing of damage?

In the next few months, the so-called Register Council will be appointed. These are seven independent specialists who will, among other things, determine the various rules and procedures of the Register, including the requirements for the submission of claims in various categories, the requirements for their evidence, and the evaluation. Therefore, it will be possible to talk about more specific rules when they are ready.

If you look at this topic from a bird’s eye view, one of the biggest challenges of the entire compensation mechanism is the number of claims: without exaggeration, we expect millions of claims. If we consider them one by one, it will take tens or even hundreds of years. Therefore, we should make some kind of more automated system for reviewing and evaluating claims, where possible.

For example, in Mariupol, there are thousands of victims whose complaints about the damage or destruction of homes will be quite similar. For example, when the UN Compensation Commission considered the consequences of Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait, it assigned a value, so to speak, to each claim. If this is extrapolated based on our reality, then it will conventionally mean that a square meter in an apartment in Mariupol is valued at a certain amount of money. Accordingly, the owner of a 100-meter apartment can automatically count on compensation, which is determined mathematically.

Where we are talking about more unique cases, there, of course, everything will happen differently; there will be an assessment of the actual damage directly. I am talking about this now very preliminarily because all these rules and approaches will still be defined in the future. But this is how we aim to work.

I can already sense that my next question is also premature because there is no order. Many have already applied to Ukrainian courts and the ECtHR for damages. It is clear that there will be a lot of court decisions where all these losses are recorded. Will this in any way affect the level of reliability of the information on the damage?

There is no specific rule yet; they will all be formed in the coming months. Our working vision of this matter is as follows: court and arbitration decisions will be taken into account for one or another circumstance, but they will not have prejudice.

That is, if a plaintiff comes with a Ukrainian court decision against Russia for 100 billion dollars, roughly speaking, this does not mean that it is automatically converted into a claim that will be satisfied. It will be evaluated, in particular, from the point of view of whether the defendant, whoever it was, participated in the trial, whether it was informed, how the trial was conducted, and how objective it was.

But such a legal assessment will take place already at the stage of the compensation commission; at the very first stage of entry into the register, it will be sufficient to submit only a court or arbitration decision.

And with regard to the most basic element of this mechanism – the fund from which all this should be reimbursed. How do you assess the prospects for its creation and raising?

I assess the prospects of creating a fund very well. It is an integral part of the mechanism; without it, the mechanism has no meaning. Because just as the register will turn into an ordinary database, the decision of the compensation commission without real payment is just a piece of paper. We don’t want that. Therefore, it will be created, and it must be filled.

There are questions here, of course.

In an ideal world, the aggressor state will come to its senses, will want to return to the civilized framework of relations in the world, either through a peace treaty or in some other way, and will agree to fill this fund on its own. To do this with direct financial infusions, some share of the income of Russian oil and gas exports, for example. There are even certain advantages in this because, in this way, the fund can be replenished indefinitely until all claimants are satisfied without any ceiling, without any maximum of this compensation.

But for us, the default scenario is that Russia will not do it voluntarily. That is why we are currently focusing our attention on Russian assets, searching for them and developing mechanisms for compensation so that Ukrainian claimants who have suffered damage will be compensated with them.

I will say obvious things now: this work is difficult. The reactions of other countries, in particular the reactions of the EU and Germany, are all public; they all proceed from the fact that this is unprecedentedly difficult and will have incomprehensible consequences.

Our answer is that the consequences of a situation where a state that violated the basic principles of international law remains unpunished are just as unclear. Therefore, we are working on this, and in the international legal format, we are looking for a solution to issues such as sovereign immunity, which, in theory, should protect the sovereign funds of states located abroad.

At the level of the European Commission, the specific idea of using frozen Russian funds has been discussed for quite some time. In the USA, not so long ago, a draft law was registered that provides for the collection and confiscation of state funds for the purposes of the compensation mechanism. This work is going on, and sooner or later, it will lead to its result. Everyone perfectly understands that if Russia does not pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, then this burden will fall on the world community.

I recently spoke with Roman Kachur, now a deputy executive director on the World Bank’s Board of Directors, and it is he who is less optimistic about the prospects for such large-scale reparations. How do you see this process? As far as I understand, one of the main obstacles to starting to effectively recover the frozen assets of the Russian Federation, and perhaps some other assets that are currently in free circulation, is the fear of creating precedents. To what extent do you think that these are valid arguments, or is it rather a political argument in order to avoid a complicated, unpleasant process, or simply not to transfer assets to Ukraine that can work on the economy of certain Western countries, especially those that in previous years received significant benefit from the fact that tens and hundreds of billions of Russian dollars are parked there.

I can’t say it’s either one thing or another. These are not mutually exclusive things. These are really important legal issues. But so are political experiences, which are really focused on the issue of setting such a precedent.

If we look at it from a purely legal point of view, then indeed, in international law, such things are not done without the consent of another state, whatever it may be. The only way to do this without the consent of another state is through the UN Security Council. This path is, of course, blocked.

We proceed from the fact that the obligation to pay reparations for violations of international law already exists. It exists, no one disputes it, and it arises at the moment when a state commits a violation of international law. That is, Russia is already guilty.

The question is to determine the extent of this damage and find a way to repay it.

Therefore, from a legal point of view, we believe that we already have all the arguments and all the bricks of this construction. All of them, in general, have either already been presented to our partners or are in the process of being presented, so to speak. But in general, this construction already exists.

As for political considerations, we feel it very well. Each state, first of all, looks at itself, at its problems, and extrapolates these extraordinary solutions to itself and to the circumstances in which it takes part. And indeed, since we are doing it in defiance of the same accepted rules that nothing can be done without the consent of the state to which it is concerned, it creates a little discomfort.

But our answer to this is that we look at this situation as narrowly as possible. We are not saying that any violation of international law should be compensated in this way. We are talking about one of the grossest, most powerful, so to speak, violations – aggression in violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter. This fact was recognized by 141 votes of countries at a special session of the UN General Assembly, in relation to which the UN International Court of Justice issued protective measures, effectively recognizing the Russian invasion as illegal obliging Russia to withdraw its troops.

We look at all these circumstances and say, look, we want to apply such a compensation procedure only in the case when 1, 2, 3, 4 we can put all four ticks. And such situations, in fact, since the creation of the UN, by and large, have not happened. This is just the situation we already mentioned when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Then, there was a reaction at the UN Security Council level, and appropriate measures were taken. That’s why we take it easy.

I don’t really like to draw parallels with arms deliveries because these are, after all, completely different worlds – weapons and international law. But somewhere, these parallels still exist. Because what a few months ago, not to mention two years ago, seemed completely unreal, politically unacceptable, and inadmissible for safety is today a reality.

And we see the same gradual change of position, softening of the position of our fellow partners on the issues of creating a commission mechanism. At first, it caused discomfort and timidity.

Now, everyone is talking about it, and a long time ago, the question of whether it can be done has already passed to the question of how to do it. And this is exactly what applies to compensation through the confiscation of Russian assets. Sorry for such a long answer.

Well, that is, summarizing, if you manage to build this logical chain, starting from actions and responsibility for them, and confirming through existing legal mechanisms that this is the responsibility of the Russian Federation for aggression, for damages, and so on, then this should just relieve the tension parts of politicians and lawyers who say that we are setting a precedent for voluntary asset recovery. And this will scare away other investors, perhaps dubious funds, and so on.

Absolutely right. And more, here we still have to talk about the issue of fundamental basic values.

Because if we talk about the precedent, then, in our opinion, the precedent will be much worse if, relying on these formal rules of international law, the aggressor state, which commits the worst violation of international law imaginable, avoids responsibility.

That is, a situation arises when the state violates some rules of international law but hides this behind others to avoid responsibility. This is not correct. I am sure that there are states in the world that are looking at this situation from the point of view of assessing the possible consequences of their actions. Therefore, in this sense, the precedent can also be bad; it should be avoided.

I think this is a very important argument. As the lack of punishment creates threats of further destabilization, bold or unfounded steps by other countries, and unfounded aggressions, and these are all risks, and risks are higher transaction costs, damage to the growth of the world economy, and this, in fact, is what probable 95% of the world society are not interested in.

We see that the world has become so globalized and interconnected that the concept of such a local conflict actually no longer exists. Because we see how the attack on Ukraine, the aggression against Ukraine, has consequences in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and any other conflict can have consequences in exactly the same way.

Therefore, we also look at our concept from the point of view that it is a matter of protecting international law, protecting the international rules-based order, and protecting the world order in which we live, including from an economic point of view.

Then, as far as I understood from your explanation, the following steps should be taken now: in the states or in their associations, in which there is some property of Russians, there should be adopted that somehow allows this property to be confiscated and given to Ukraine. Then, there should be an international treaty that describes how this Fund is created and how this money is directed to reparations.

Basically, yes, it is possible to discuss the order in which it should take place, whether first the international agreement and then the national legislation, or vice versa. But in general, yes, all these actions must be taken; we are talking about a set of actions both in the context of international law and in the context of national legislation in each of the countries involved in this process. Therefore, there will be a lot of choreography here.

How long can it take?

I will speak in platitudes now; forecasts are a very ungrateful thing. I will take an example from the relatively recent past. On May 18, 2022, President Zelenskyi created a working group of lawyers to work on the development and implementation of a compensation mechanism.

Half a year after that, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on reparations for Ukraine, in which it recognized the need for a compensation mechanism and recommended the creation of a register of damage. Half a year later, two days before the anniversary of the presidential decree, the creation of the register was already announced.

In terms of international law, this is the third cosmic speed, if not faster.

Such things have never happened so quickly before. We have a certain high bar for the pace we want to keep going forward. Whether it will be possible to do it, I will say that only the future knows the answer.

We need to find a common denominator in the creation of a compensation mechanism that will be agreed upon by many important states for us, for each of which this is the first time in this format. Therefore, I am not ready to indicate any time frame. Here, everything happens in the ASAP mode, as soon as possible.

Only our deadlines are the toughest.

Source – DeadLawyers.org

Ukraine: Improving regulation of foreign branches and representative offices

On 3 September 2023, the Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Regulation of Activities of Separate Subdivisions of a Legal Entity Established in Accordance with the Laws of a Foreign State” No. 3257-IX dated 14 July 2023 (“Law“) came into effect.

Key highlights

The Law is developed to streamline various aspects of the state registration and liquidation procedures for representative offices and enable the establishment of full-fledged branches of foreign companies operating in Ukraine. The majority of its provisions pertaining to the changes detailed below will become effective from 3 September 2024.

Key provisions:

The Law introduces several noteworthy changes in relation to branches and representative offices of foreign companies in Ukraine, as follows:

  • State-registration related changes:
    • The authority for the state registration of representative offices will be transferred from the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine to state registrars.
    • The time frame for state registration will be reduced from 20 business days to just 5 business days.
    • The exclusive set of documents and information required for state registration of a representative office will be defined in the law. Representative offices will now be required to have a statutory document (regulation) and submit information on the ownership structure of the founding foreign company and details about its ultimate beneficial owner to the state registrar.
    • Similar to legal entities, the principal information on foreign branches and representative offices will be generally accessible in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs and Public Organizations.
  • Additional changes:
    • Ukrainian law will prescribe the liquidation procedure for branches and representative offices, which is similar to the liquidation process for legal entities. Where there are insufficient funds to meet creditors’ claims during the liquidation process, the liquidation commission will be authorized to sell the assets of a branch or representative office. If the value of underlying assets proves to be insufficient, creditors will have the right to seek satisfaction from the assets of the founding foreign company.
    • Certain amendments related to the regulation of branches and representative offices of foreign banks will be introduced into the Law of Ukraine “On Banks and Banking Activities.”
    • The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is responsible for transferring information on the existing branches and representative offices of foreign companies from the Ministry of Economy to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs and Public Organizations.

Source – Lexology.com

Now is the time for businesses to look at Ukraine

War can bring out the best in people, but it also sadly takes away many of the best among us. Around one-third of the more than six hundred member companies at the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine (AmCham Ukraine) have seen employees killed during the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Almost half of all member companies have experienced some form of damage to plants or facilities as a result of the invasion.

These figures reflect the tragic toll of the war on the Ukrainian people. Thousands of lives have been lost, and millions of Ukrainians have been forced from their homes. The scale of the destruction caused by Russia’s invasion has also been staggering and already runs to hundreds of billions of dollars in material damage. This total continues to rise on a daily basis.

Despite these horrors, the mood on the ground in Ukraine remains remarkably resilient. While lionhearted Ukrainians defend their country on the battlefield, companies work hard in the business arena to safeguard Ukraine’s economy and pave the way for future recovery. The Ukrainian business environment remains strikingly dynamic and innovative; for example, since the start of the full-scale invasion, AmCham Ukraine has welcomed 88 new member companies.

Businesses throughout Ukraine have adapted impressively to the many security, logistical, and economic challenges of the war. They continue to pay taxes, create jobs, invest, rebuild communities, support humanitarian efforts, and deliver essential services in exceptionally difficult and unpredictable circumstances. Looking ahead, they are ready to show the whole world what they are really capable of once peace returns to the country.

AmCham Ukraine has conducted nine surveys since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion to gauge the mood within the Ukrainian business community. Many of the survey findings have been consistent throughout the entire wartime period, and have reflected the courage and confidence that have sustained Ukrainian businesses amid the physical hardships and mental trauma of the invasion.

As the war passed the eighteen month mark in late August, 84 percent of AmCham Ukraine member companies were operational. Many confirmed that they already had upbeat plans in place for Ukraine’s recovery and rebuilding, with 74 percent planning to create jobs within the framework of existing projects and 63 percent looking to invest in new projects or facilities. Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of member companies (92 percent) expressed their confidence in Ukrainian victory.

As Russia continues to bomb residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, the safety and security of employees and clients remains the number one priority for all businesses operating in today’s Ukraine. Other pressing war-related issues include de-mining, the conscription of employees, the ongoing Russian naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, transport queues at Ukraine’s land borders with the country’s EU neighbors, war risk insurance, cyber security, and much more. Nevertheless, clear indications of durability and innovation can be seen throughout the Ukrainian business community, with the Ukrainian economy expected to experience modest growth in 2023 following an inevitably sharp decline during the first year of the invasion.

My message to the international business community is unambiguous: It is risky to invest in Ukraine right now, but it’s riskier not to invest. There are countless examples of companies throughout the Ukrainian economy that successfully operate in-between air raid sirens; meanwhile, many multinationals have resumed operations in Ukraine’s regions and are building shelters or other infrastructure to address the specific security challenges created by the Russian invasion. It’s a risk-and-reward model in action.

I am convinced that now is the right moment to begin looking at Ukraine as a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity. The biggest national recovery project in Europe since World War II is already underway and will gain considerable further momentum in the months and years ahead. Those who join this process during the early stages will benefit from a range of advantages.

Ukraine is a vast country with a large population, bountiful resources, and an excellent workforce. It is ideally located on the border of the European Union, with EU accession on track. Today’s Ukraine is an increasingly self-confident country that has turned away from Russia and is advancing toward greater Euro-Atlantic integration. Over the past eighteen months, Ukraine’s resilient response to Russia’s criminal invasion has captured the imagination of the watching world; Ukrainians are now more determined than ever to build the kind of future their nation deserves. This will create opportunities that no ambitious investors or international businesses should miss.

Andy Hunder is President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.

Source – Atlantic Council

Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Projects: Key Legal Tips for Foreign Construction Companies

Understanding procedures, stakeholders and milestones of Ukraines future recovery is essential for all parties planning to be involved in that process, including on the construction side. In this effort, the key messages currently available are as follows.

Corporate Presence in Ukraine

Foreign construction companies can carry construction activities in Ukraine by establishing one of the following structures:

There are important remarks to each of these items, which should be addressed on a case by case basis.

Regulatory Presence in Ukraine. Licensing of construction activities 

In Ukraine, construction of certain facilities (i.e., facilities with medium and significant consequences so called CC2 and CC3) is subject to licensing. 

There is currently no procedure of recognition of foreign construction licenses.

The procedure for obtaining a construction license is rather complex and has significant gaps and uncertainties. Due to several reasons, including incomplete reform of construction regulations, licensing procedure is currently not functioning and so obtaining a license is technically not possible. In the meantime, as a temporary solution for the martial law period, the right to conduct construction activities may be obtained by business entities based on a declaration.  

What does the declaration mean?

The declaration means submitting an application in electronic or in paper form through electronic service delivery portal (Diia) or one of the administrative service centers. The applicant should be entitled to start performing the declared activities upon submission of such declaration. However, it is advisable to wait for the licensing (permitting) authority (i.e., State Inspection of Architecture and Urban Planning the Inspection ) to process and include the submitted declaration into the respective register, which will eventually serve as a formal confirmation of the right to perform construction activities.

Such declaration procedure, essentially being a substitute for a license, is temporary. After the end of martial law, the entity must apply to the Inspection and obtain a permanent license as applicable.

Old licenses

For the period of martial law, the licenses and permits issued earlier are deemed automatically extended for the period of martial law plus three months from the date of its termination.

Overall, from a policy perspective, licensing remains an open issue and is pending legislative solution. It is broadly expected that this area will be further reformed after the war in Ukraine ends. 

Local Clients for Recovery Projects

To understand who should be approached for potential cooperation on the future construction / recovery projects, hence are the main options in the public sector.

The State Agency for the Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine (the Restoration Agency )

Restoration Agency is a body aimed to manage recovery projects previously submitted by local communities through a digital system and agreed with the government. For this purpose, the Government of Ukraine has created a Digital Restoration EcoSystem for Accountable Management (the DREAM ) a state digital system that will provide a single platform for all reconstruction projects in Ukraine, where local communities can create and present necessary reconstruction projects, as well as investors and counterparts will be able to track the entire reconstruction cycle, from design, public procurement, construction, reconstruction and repair to commissioning of the finished facilities. DREAM system is designed to introduce clear accountability and transparency in the reconstruction process. 

State bodies, enterprises and organizations as clients of separate projects

Large state owned companies operating in certain infrastructure sectors, such as Ukrainian State Railways (the national railway carrier), the Ukrainian Sea Ports Agency (the authority managing Ukraine s port infrastructure), Naftogaz (the gas supply provider), Ukrenergo (electricity transmission system operator of Ukraine), Energoatom (the largest producer of electricity in Ukraine), Ukrhydroenergo (the largest hydro generating company in Ukraine), Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, local utility companies etc., may also be contractors for individual reconstruction projects in certain infrastructure areas. Typically, such projects should be organized through direct cooperation or public procurement (if applicable).

Structuring Partnership Relations in Construction Projects Parties can structure their relationships with partners as corporate or contractual joint ventures (although the latter are subject to rather burdensome regulations in Ukraine). Subcontractor arrangements are broadly used as well. Joint venture arrangement can also be considered for project financing purposes. However, note that Ukrainian law provides for an exhaustive list of instruments to attract funds to finance construction of the residential premises. Joint venture agreement is not included in this list and therefore can only be used for non residential projects.

Procurement and Financing 

As far as a project involves budgetary spendings, procurement laws should be applied.  Local tender procedure is applied if any payments/contracts exceed a certain value threshold (subject to certain statutory exceptions). Within the period of martial law in Ukraine, this threshold is as follows:  If a project is funded by international financial institutions (such as World Bank, IBRD, EBRD etc.), such institutions keep the powers to introduce their own procurement rules and regulations. In practice, therefore, construction projects with international financing are usually carried out based on standard procurement procedures of the respective finance organization, being the most known and comfortable standard for international bidders.

If a project is funded by other external sources (i.e., charity funds, international donors funds, etc.), the public procurement procedures may not apply, although this should rather be assessed on a case by case basis.

In addition, there are certain exceptions to the above thresholds, which will not be subject to the tender process, namely in cases of procurement of goods, works and services needed to restore the facilities of the electric power, nuclear power, coal mining and oil and gas complexes during the martial law period.

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Where will Ukraine get funds for post-war reconstruction and what will it be spent on? 

One should understand right now, how to start rebuilding a war-torn country and where to get money: better late than never. 

For over one year, Ukraine has faced a large-scale destruction due to russian military aggression. Since outbreak of the war, the country’s economy has shrunk by almost a third. Today own funds are enough mainly to finance military expenses, while social payments are largely provided by financial remittances from international partners. 

Despite this, it’s not so early to form the clearest possible vision and, with regards thereto, a strong and predictable financial basis for the future post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. 

Ukrainian government officials, business entities, scientists and public sector, jointly with our international partners, are actively working on developing a vision of priorities for future reconstruction and forming the appropriate infrastructure. 

See LIGA.net materials: how the Ukraine’s reconstruction infrastructure will look like and what sums are involved. 

War-time priorities 

Rostyslav Shurma, Deputy Head of the President’s Office and manager of economic sector of the President’s Administration, in his interview for LIGA.net recently spoke about the priorities of the Ukrainian government in post-war reconstruction of the country. 

He sees the following structure of the state needs: “Basic need for our state is to continue functioning. It is not just a reconstruction; it is aimed at payment of pensions and salaries. Next need is quick reconstruction, followed by large-scale reconstruction”. 

Therefore, the most vital issue is survival of the state, which is not related to recovery anyway. Next stage is the so-called Fast Recovery Plan, in respect whereof there is a clear understanding what should be restored and who will be responsible for it. 

Fast recovery 

This stage of reconstruction is primarily related to meeting the people’s needs, namely: 

• restoration of housing; 

• reconstruction of critical infrastructure (i.e. power/heat/water supply, mobile communication, etc.); 

• humanitarian aid (schools, hospitals, kindergartens); 

• transport infrastructure (roads, bridges). 

For this work, the government created a special body called the State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Ukraine’s Infrastructure, in the form of merger between Ukravtodor and the State Agency for Infrastructure Projects. 

The Agency is responsible not only for transport infrastructure restoration but also covers construction and reconstruction of residential facilities, social and public facilities, housing, energy infrastructure, protective structures, etc. 

Mustafa Nayem, Head of the Agency, notes that priority will be given to projects in the most affected regions, such as Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions. 

Recently, the President signed the law on launching a compensation mechanism in favor of Ukrainians for destroyed or damaged housing. The sources of funding such reimbursement are the Recovery Fund, state and local budgets, funds from MFIs, investors, international partners, as well as reparations and confiscated russian assets. 

See the link for details: who can rely on reimbursement for destroyed or damaged housing. 

Internal financing sources 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the need for 17 billion USD just for the Fast Recovery Plan. 

People’s Deputy Danylo Hetmantsev, Secretary of the National Recovery Council, an advisory body at the President of Ukraine, reminds it in a comment for LIGA.net that it occurred in October 2022, before the large-scale destruction of power supply infrastructure, Each subsequent enemy shelling will cause increase of Ukraine’s losses due to the war. 

“We update the damage assessment on a monthly basis: plus two-three-five billion dollars every month” 

The state budget can offer much smaller amounts. State budget for 2023 provides 52.5 billion UAH for the Fund for the Liquidation of Consequences of the russian federation’s Aggression, i.e. slightly less than 1.4 billion USD. 

In February, the government approved the procedure for using such funds. First of all, costs will be aimed at construction and repair of public buildings, housing for war victims, purchase of school buses and special vehicles for health care facilities and utility companies. 

Apart to the aforesaid 52.5 billion UAH, Mr. Hetmantsev notes that the state is planning to allocate additional funds for reconstruction in various ways, e.g. 5.3 billion UAH of subventions to local budgets, 2 billion UAH from the State Fund for Regional Development, jointly with smaller amounts. But this is far from 17 billion USD. 

International aid 

Ukraine prefers to receive the rest from partner countries and international financial organizations. There are many financing channels. 

In late January 2023, the European Union launched a donor coordination platform for recovery of Ukraine. The EU itself is ready to allocate 1 billion EUR for rapid recovery projects. 

Accumulation of funds for recovery of Ukraine also takes place through the World Bank fund and the international special fund for power supply recovery. 

Certain countries have also created their own funds. For instance, Denmark allocated 1 billion USD for Ukraine’s needs, including 0.4 billion USD for post-war reconstruction – not directly, but through financing by Danish companies. 

International aid for Ukraine also comes through the official United24 fundraising platform. 

Ukraine also relies on one more funding source: reparations from the russian federation and confiscated russian assets. But it is a long-term prospect: it makes no sense to rely thereon at least this year. 

The current situation and further priorities 

As declared by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine for LIGA.net, in 2022 the European Investment Bank (EIB) allocated 1.05 billion EUR as part of launching joint investment projects aimed at financing measures to prepare housing and communal facilities for the heating season. 

In addition, costs were allocated to restoring and updating road facilities damaged by hostilities, in particular, artificial structures and railway infrastructure, power/heat/eater supply, residential and communal infrastructure facilities, securing energy efficiency and energy saving. 

In September and October 2022, EIB funds in the amount of 1 billion EUR were transferred to a special fund of the state budget. However, 50 million EUR from the EIB loan funds were directed to the state enterprise Ukrenergo for financing auxiliary services, balancing production and consumption of power energy. 

In the framework of financing the above facilities, 400 million EUR were transferred to the State Highway Agency of Ukraine in order to take measures aimed at support of functioning road management and transport infrastructure under martial law. 

As reported by the Ministry of Finance, a decision is being drafted upon allocating 600 million EUR in 2023 for the purposes of design, restoration, construction, modernization, arrangement and repair of construction facilities. It will cover mainly public facilities, social sphere objects, cultural heritage and household services. 

In priority there are engineering and transport (public highways of state importance), railway, power supply infrastructure, checkpoints across the state border for road traffic, other facilities having an impact on people’s life, as well as infrastructure of air, sea and river transport. 

In late 2022, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that aid amount declared by partners just in power supply sector of Ukraine reached ca. 1.5 billion USD. 

Who will receive funds? 

Delegates of regional and Kyiv city state administrations may submit Applications for receiving funds from the Recovery Fund to the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education and Science. There will be no single manager of fund recovery in Ukraine. 

There is an institutional framework headed by the Deputy Prime Minister (currently Oleksandr Kubrakov), a ministry subordinate thereto and a special reconstruction agency, as Danylo Hetmantsev noted in a comment to LIGA.net

He added, “There is no single manager, since there are many channels for obtaining funding. As for part of the international funding through the budget, the ministry responsible for certain reconstruction projects is directly defined in the agreements”. 

Martyna Bohuslavets, CEO of the Institute of Legislative Ideas, states that a problem may be the fact that only heads of regions can apply for funds from the Reconstruction Fund, while mayors of cities and communities become dependent thereon. 

Mrs. Bohuslavets believes that, despite creation of special working groups that will study applications for receiving funds, the final decision will be made by the ministries and the government itself. Therefore, the process of cost distribution will be centralized and will function in manual mode, i.e. non-transparent and non-public. 

Large-scale reconstruction 

As for financing the stage of large-scale post-war reconstruction, there are even less specifications. 

According to the State Recovery Plan presented by the Ukrainian government delegation in July 2022 in Lugano, Switzerland, the Marshall Plan for post-war Ukraine is designed for 10 years and is estimated at 750 billion USD. 

Rostyslav Shurma clarified in an interview with LIGA.net that there may be various sources of obtaining such funds: for instance, international government funds, reparations, confiscated russian assets and concession capital. But the main potential source is private capital. 

Deputy Head of the President’s Office highlights that the success of large-scale recovery will depend on the private capital volume, because private capital makes up 80% from the above 750 billion USD. 

Ukrainian government officials understand that attracting funds from private investors is impossible without structural reforms, primarily in terms of the rule of law and anti-corruption gains. 

“We are currently working with our international partners, i.e. BlackRock and J.P. Morgan, upon formation of development bank or development fund, which will be the first locomotive of investments in the first dozens of projects and which will help open Ukraine to the whole global business”. 

In addition, the Ministry of Economy has created the Advantage Ukraine platform aimed to communicate with potential investors. According to the Ministry, Ukraine has already received over 500 investment requests. 

In the framework of stimulating international investments, the Ministry of Economy is actively trying to introduce in Ukraine, in particular, military business risk insurance. Victory on this front will be a keystone on the way to a significant increase in the flow of foreign private investments into the Ukrainian economy development: we already have success just now.

https://finance.liga.net/ua/ekonomika/article/gde-ukraina-vozmet-dengi-na-poslevoennoe-vosstanovlenie-i-na-chto-ih-potratit

Mr. Usenko, the President’s adviser, states that losses caused by russia’s war against Ukraine make up a trillion USD dollars 

Oleg Ustenko, economist and adviser to the President of Ukraine, told the Ukrainian Radio how the Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression is replenished, what is the amount of losses caused by war, when costs will be transferred to Ukraine from seized assets of the russian federation, and how the so-called Marshall Plan should work for the country. 

About the Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression 

The Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression has already been created. But there are some organizational issues related to its creation and what these funds will be used for. With regards to replenishment of this fund and the latest resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers, we are talking about 6.6 billion UAH. These are not enough funds for full recovery of the Ukrainian economy and the country in general. In this war we have suffered losses much exceeding $750 billion previously estimated. 

That’s why a big conference is starting to work in London, related precisely to the issues of the Ukrainian economy recovery. Losses caused by russia should be fully compensated: this is one of positions discussed in the Peace Plan of President Zelenskyi. Such losses cause buildings damaged by the russian army, enterprises that need to be rebuilt on a new technical and technological basis and a crucial part of our key infrastructure. 

About the amount of losses 

We are talking about recovery in two directions. The first is quick recovery, immediately and now. It covers the most crucial part of the key infrastructure. Therefore, 6.6 billion UAH are directed specifically to its restoration. 

As per preliminary assessment, one trillion US dollars, or 40 trillion UAH include direct and indirect losses caused by russian armed forces. Therefore, they should compensate us the debts we had to incur, the interest we will pay upon such debts and the lost property. Moral compensation will also be required. 

About funds from russian assets seized abroad 

Currently, the principal issue is that the seized funds of russia, in particular, funds of their Central Bank and nomenklatura, should be transferred immediately for the needs of Ukraine. We hope that the process of their transfer has already commenced. We expect that the first funds should appear in Ukraine quickly enough, in a month or two. 

About state investments 

The allocated 6.6 billion UAH, like any state investment in infrastructure projects, gives the opportunity to work primarily to private business. There can be no business when you do not have access to power supply or it is supplied under unclear schedule. There can be no business if there is no logistics corridor and you cannot transport goods simply due to destroyed bridge, but you have to transport by some other ways, which increases transport costs and, accordingly, prime cost and price. Therefore, such type of state investments shall provide an opportunity to receive additional impetus for economy development. 

About the Marshall Plan aimed at reconstruction of Ukraine 

While speaking about the complete reconstruction of Ukraine, we mean also that it will be necessary to rebuild the entire destroyed infrastructure. That’s an additional boost for economic growth not just because the state spends money, but because new jobs are created in construction-related industries. In general, new jobs appear because people receive additional funds and, accordingly, can spend more. This is a classic economic restart. 

That is why they are talking about the so-called Marshall Plan aimed at reconstruction of Ukraine. It was based on the fact of giving impetus to development at the expense of state investments in infrastructure. One can build infrastructure and facilitate conditions for normal development of private business. Further, private business gets an opportunity for growth. The main task in the post-war period is to return our economy to the pre-war level as soon as possible. 

Mr. Usenko, the President’s adviser, states that losses caused by russia’s war against Ukraine make up a trillion USD dollars 

Oleg Ustenko, economist and adviser to the President of Ukraine, told the Ukrainian Radio how the Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression is replenished, what is the amount of losses caused by war, when costs will be transferred to Ukraine from seized assets of the russian federation, and how the so-called Marshall Plan should work for the country. 

About the Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression 

The Fund for Liquidation of Consequences of russian Aggression has already been created. But there are some organizational issues related to its creation and what these funds will be used for. With regards to replenishment of this fund and the latest resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers, we are talking about 6.6 billion UAH. These are not enough funds for full recovery of the Ukrainian economy and the country in general. In this war we have suffered losses much exceeding $750 billion previously estimated. 

That’s why a big conference is starting to work in London, related precisely to the issues of the Ukrainian economy recovery. Losses caused by russia should be fully compensated: this is one of positions discussed in the Peace Plan of President Zelenskyi. Such losses cause buildings damaged by the russian army, enterprises that need to be rebuilt on a new technical and technological basis and a crucial part of our key infrastructure. 

About the amount of losses 

We are talking about recovery in two directions. The first is quick recovery, immediately and now. It covers the most crucial part of the key infrastructure. Therefore, 6.6 billion UAH are directed specifically to its restoration. 

As per preliminary assessment, one trillion US dollars, or 40 trillion UAH include direct and indirect losses caused by russian armed forces. Therefore, they should compensate us the debts we had to incur, the interest we will pay upon such debts and the lost property. Moral compensation will also be required. 

About funds from russian assets seized abroad 

Currently, the principal issue is that the seized funds of russia, in particular, funds of their Central Bank and nomenklatura, should be transferred immediately for the needs of Ukraine. We hope that the process of their transfer has already commenced. We expect that the first funds should appear in Ukraine quickly enough, in a month or two. 

About state investments 

The allocated 6.6 billion UAH, like any state investment in infrastructure projects, gives the opportunity to work primarily to private business. There can be no business when you do not have access to power supply or it is supplied under unclear schedule. There can be no business if there is no logistics corridor and you cannot transport goods simply due to destroyed bridge, but you have to transport by some other ways, which increases transport costs and, accordingly, prime cost and price. Therefore, such type of state investments shall provide an opportunity to receive additional impetus for economy development. 

About the Marshall Plan aimed at reconstruction of Ukraine 

While speaking about the complete reconstruction of Ukraine, we mean also that it will be necessary to rebuild the entire destroyed infrastructure. That’s an additional boost for economic growth not just because the state spends money, but because new jobs are created in construction-related industries. In general, new jobs appear because people receive additional funds and, accordingly, can spend more. This is a classic economic restart. 

That is why they are talking about the so-called Marshall Plan aimed at reconstruction of Ukraine. It was based on the fact of giving impetus to development at the expense of state investments in infrastructure. One can build infrastructure and facilitate conditions for normal development of private business. Further, private business gets an opportunity for growth. The main task in the post-war period is to return our economy to the pre-war level as soon as possible. 

https://suspilne.media/512157-suma-zbitkiv-zavdanih-vijnou-rosii-proti-ukraini-triljon-dolariv-radnik-prezidenta-ustenko/

Ukraine: The path to the recovery

According to the results of a recent assessment by the World Bank, Ukrainian recovery and reconstruction will require at least $411 billion. This figure is 1.5 times higher than the size of the pre-war economy of Ukraine – writes Anna Derevyanko, European Business Association Executive Director (pictured),

Plans to rebuild Ukraine are already being talked about – at different events all over the world, in media, during business trips and high-official meetings. Nevertheless, it is also worth moving from words to actions – making concrete plans, with concrete steps and understanding who will have to pay and for what.

Definitely, the private sector has an important role to play in the rebuilding of Ukraine – in a variety of ways, including direct investment, critical projects, mobilizing capital, etc. And we see – a business that works in Ukraine is ready to be involved in the process of rebuilding. Moreover, businesses stay committed and support the country, continue to work and to pay salaries. Now even more than at the beginning of the war. However, rebuilding is a huge process that entails investments. Hence, how to attract the private sector, foreign investments – the questions that need to be thought about already. As opportunities are enormous – in food and agro, IT, logistics and infrastructure, defense, etc. Sure, for some businesses security reasons can be a slowdown. However, mechanisms like war risk investment guarantees can bring the appetite. In other words, businesses that want to invest or work with Ukraine also need to have support, guarantees while entering a challenging market. It’s priceless to have donors and governmental support. However, the sooner we (as a country) create a more sustainable economic front, the sooner Ukraine will be less dependable on international support, the sooner the EU and USA will spend less from their budgets. So, I welcome countries to think about such mechanisms for their businesses willing to invest in Ukraine.

Ukraine as well must do a huge homework to welcome investors. Let’s be honest, even before the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine didn’t have huge boom of investors due to the continuing concerns about corruption, rule of law, governance, etc. Though, Ukraine is currently the focus of the whole world. And, yes, countries support Ukraine, help and are ready to continue doing so. But when you talk to real businesses about specific things, investments, you still hear a certain skepticism. Therefore, the situation must be corrected already – across all industries and fronts, and this should be the focus of the entire governmental team.

Important progress has already been achieved. According to the Corruption Perception Index 2022 of Transparency International, an NGO working in over 100 countries to end the injustice of corruption, Ukraine is one of the few countries tracked that became less corrupt last year. Ukraine is well-known for the digitalization of administrative services, Ukraine has 18 free trade agreements with 46 countries, in recent times Ukraine canceled around 600 permits required for running a business. And this list of changes can be continued.

However, the Ukrainian government must make significant further reforms on transparency and accountability to create a strong business-enabling environment for attracting private sector investment.

The situation motivates Ukraine to strengthen diplomacy and economic diplomacy. Ukraine should work to create an attractive brand and an economic brand abroad. Reputation is not easy to form, it is not fast, even harder to change but it is the only way to convince others. Therefore, we in the European Business Association launched a Global Business for Ukraine initiative to work on the development of economic diplomacy, to talk about Ukraine and business opportunities, to help global companies find business partners in the country, to be the right hand for global companies – potential investors who want to launch business in Ukraine.

However, the attractiveness of the brand must have a real and strong background. Hence, it is necessary to take care of creating a new, transparent, and fast management structure, to continue reforms and changes, to be more demanding towards the state apparatus. After all, Ukraine faces a task that, probably, has not yet been performed by any country in the world. But opportunities are also opening, which probably has not been in any country.

So, what we as a country should continue doing to create this strong background?

First, to continue establishing the rule of law in the country, investors must know that even if their rights have been violated, the courts will certainly be able to help find justice, protect legal interests and it won’t take years.

Second, effectively fight against corruption. Currently, many agencies, in particular, law enforcement agencies, have an extremely bad reputation in this area. Since taking office, Zelensky has stressed to the international community that he will make fighting corruption in his country a major policy priority. Zelensky’s reform agenda leaves little doubt about his intention to eradicate illegal practices and step up the fight against corruption. But more complex solutions – at all levels and in all branches of government are needed. And complex results.

Third, concrete steps and plans to overcome the shadow economy in the country, which accounts for about a third of the GDP. Unfortunately, the war did not fundamentally change the situation, but in some industries even deteriorated. As an example, the shadow economy in the tobacco industry is the highest since Ukrainian independence and is about 22%. Last year, the state budget did not receive about 20.5 billion hryvnias of charges due to the illegal circulation of tobacco,and in 2023, according to KPMG report, the state losses will amount toEUR 636 million of unpaid taxes.From the media we could read high-profile cases of recording specific violations, but, unfortunately, it is difficult to remember specific punishments and prosecutions. The share of the illegal market remains significant. Therefore, it’s crucial to have coordinated work of all structures and make unpopular decisions. So that a transparent business also understands and feels fairness in approaches.

I am sure that these issues can be resolved. Actually, we as a country that is confidently heading towards EU membership have no other way out. And business is ready to be a partner in this process of transformation. Partner in spreading the word of the mouse to motivate new investments to come to the country. It already does so by promoting Ukraine, participating in global events, sharing stories, investing. And I hope this tendency will continue. Moreover, hope that the Ukrainian government will have a constant dialogue with such companies. As only together is possible to rebuild, develop and strengthen our economy. 

https://www.eureporter.co/world/ukraine/2023/08/10/ukraine-the-path-to-the-recovery/?fbclid=IwAR1zi2Gh7p0DKr7tYEUSYJYrJMaS03Fc8R6UlyhU7iG9Z2FTMzP4ji9mMuw&_gl=11lqo2m8_gaMTIwMTA5NDU2OC4xNjk4MDcyOTgx_ga_BXS2HELDDH*MTY5ODA3Mjk4MS4xLjAuMTY5ODA3Mjk4Mi4wLjAuMA..

A closed circle: there are funds for restoration, but there is no money for investment 

Why can’t we talk about full reconstruction of Ukraine without private funds and what is required to attract investors? 

One more session of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London clearly shows how strongly the Western world supports Ukraine in its fight against russian aggression. 

Inspirational speeches by top officials of the UK, the US and the EU, promises to finance restoration of Ukrainian infrastructure just today give us confidence that we will not be left alone with our most painful problems and the Western world will do everything possible in order to prevent humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. 

Western officials and businessmen, either modestly or actively, talk about their love for Ukraine who protects the entire Western civilization from inadequate Eastern tyranny at the cost of thousands of lives of its soldiers. 

Therefore, Western governments manage to convince their taxpayers that it is necessary to invest their costs into the victory of Ukraine. 

It means that they will help us to win and to provide minimum human needs. And what about investments into development of Ukraine? It is no secret that funds of Western governments, i.e. taxpayers, will not be enough for such investments. 

Even costs that we can theoretically receive in the form of compensation from the aggressor state will not be enough. Therefore, only private capital can become the most important source for investments into proper recovery and rapid economic growth of Ukraine. 

One should not be naive: no matter how much Western investors love Ukraine, they love their money much more. It means that they will make their investments into our state only when they are sure that such funds will result in much more earnings. 

First, they should make sure that assets they will create will not be destroyed. 

Insurance against such events is a vital issue, but with high risks of an insured event it will not help so much, because insurance payment will only return invested costs. Therefore, without NATO-level security guarantees, there is no sense to talk about an investment boom. 

Next, Western investors should be convinced that their investments will not be threatened by a corrupt official, law enforcement officer or judge. After all, russian propaganda created for us an image of the most corrupt European country. 

There are certain reasons for this, based mainly on numerous cases when a foreign investor faced arbitrariness of the Ukrainian authorities. And every such case is gladly spread by the Western media. Moreover, even experienced Ukrainian business entities are ready to flee the country in view of arbitrariness of law enforcement officers. 

Based on this, I see that the answer to the question asked by one of the top Ukrainian speakers, why the Europeans should not build one of the four planned gigafactories in Ukraine, will be disappointing. 

It is also not surprising that at the London Conference, almost every speaker not related to the Ukrainian authorities mentioned the need to secure the rule of law and freedom from corruption in Ukraine. 

The main German diplomat on the sidelines of the conference spoke about Ukrainian nepotism and corruption in a completely undiplomatic way, because corruption and selective justice cause not only risks of relations between business and state. 

They cause also unfair rules of market game, i.e. situations where a business operating in accordance to high ethical standards always loses competition to a less responsible business. 

Therefore, responsible business entities have little chance of development. As a result, we will face regress and will move far from European standards. 

Perhaps the best marker that we have overcome most of the barriers to investment will be our accession to the EU and NATO. Only then we can really rely upon a frenzied influx of Western investment. 

While we are still doing our homework for the fastest possible European integration, we can seriously rely only upon investments into Ukrainian business. After all, our business is much bolder and more determined than foreign investors for whom Ukraine is only one of several hundreds of targets for their capital investment. 

Therefore, first and foremost for the government to start its way to major investments in Ukraine is to facilitate comfort for Ukrainian investors. Although they are not so big as Western ones, their financial capabilities are smaller. 

But it is the local investor who will be the litmus test, the signal for foreigners that it is safe here and that one can invest and earn here. In other words, it will be extremely difficult to attract foreign money here in the absence of local investors. 

Here, the government can help by actively attracting Western state and quasi-state funds for local investment projects, as well as by developing effective incentives and investment support measures. Sincerely, the Law of Ukraine on investment nannies was a failed attempt. 

Is there any benefit to conferences similar to those held in Lugano or in London? Of course, there is, because it is probably the best platform for Ukrainian officials to receive objective and unbiased feedback from potential foreign investors regarding up-to-date investment climate in Ukraine. Then they will better understand how this climate can be changed. 

https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2023/06/23/701520/