When will investors arrive, and what will they invest in: the “What’s up with the economy?” podcast with Serhii Budkin

During wartime, the share of state ownership in the economy always increases, allowing governments to more effectively manage resources and meet the needs of society. However, in Ukraine, this indicator exceeds even the high levels seen during World War II, such as in the United Kingdom. After the nationalization of Sens Bank, the government’s share in the banking sector stands at 53%.

However, there can be a positive aspect to the dominance of state-owned banks, and that is the development of innovation. Under normal circumstances, the banking sector is highly competitive, and when an innovation (such as Monobank) enters the market, it is quickly copied. As a result, small innovative projects often don’t have a chance to grow into profitability. When large banks are state-owned, they tend to be somewhat relaxed, allowing small innovative projects an opportunity to “gain traction” before they are noticed.

Furthermore, if in the lending market, private banks are unlikely to compete with state-owned ones, in the business lending sector, especially for SMEs, they have a competitive advantage.

About the main obstacle to investment

Over the past 20 years, there has been little change in terms of property rights protection in Ukraine. This is the main problem that restricts access to credit resources.

In Ukraine, you can only be creditworthy if you (alone or with your friends) own your business 100%, unlike countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, where you can have 100 shareholders, a shareholder agreement among them, a board of directors, and so on. In Ukraine, shareholder agreements and corporate governance are mandated by law but not effectively implemented in practice. Therefore, we have a relatively low complexity in the corporate sector and, consequently, limited opportunities for both lending and investments.

The main problem faced by those developing recovery programs for Ukraine is quite simple. It’s not about where to find the money, as there will be plenty of funds available. The question is where to invest them because there simply aren’t enough investment opportunities. In Ukraine, it’s not possible to invest in 5% or 10% of a company. By making such an investment, in practice, you won’t gain anything because minority shareholders are not adequately protected. This lack of investment opportunities and protection for minority shareholders hinders the effective allocation of resources and investment in the country.

About the impact of the tax system on investment

Countries that receive the most investments often do not have the world’s best tax regimes, such as the United States, China, and Brazil. Therefore, high taxes are not necessarily the problem.

The first issue is competition inequality. If everyone is underreporting taxes, then if I pay taxes, I will definitely be non-competitive. The second issue is the risks associated with the state since any enterprise that demonstrates reasonably good financial results is likely to face inspections from tax authorities, the ESBU, or other government agencies. 

About the privatization of banks after the war

For a successful privatization, it’s necessary to address “legacy issues,” meaning the issues inherited by banks from their previous owners. The simplest example is PrivatBank, which constitutes 25% of Ukraine’s banking sector and, by some parameters, even more. The state has declared its intention to privatize this bank. However, as long as issues with Kolomoisky and other former shareholders are unresolved, privatizing it is impossible.

The likelihood of privatizing UkrEximBank is nearly zero because banks like these are extremely difficult to privatize. It has so much state-related risk on its balance sheet (loans to state-owned companies) that it can only be sold to someone with political ambitions for using these assets. From a banking business perspective, these loans do not hold significant value, and consequently, the bank’s value is low.

In the modern banking market, large retail businesses are most highly valued. Following them are small and medium-sized businesses since the risk associated with them is diversified and can be forecasted based on statistics rather than political decisions. Only after considering these options do investors look at large corporate projects. 

About the privatization of state-owned companies

It’s best to actively prepare for privatization after the war ends so that, amidst the general enthusiasm and uplift, auctions can be immediately held. When everyone is talking about the country’s recovery, assets will be worth much more than when the narrative is that everything is bad, nothing is working, there’s corruption, and why invest money there at all. Such assessments significantly influence investors’ willingness.

To facilitate this, a change in the approach of the State Property Fund is necessary. Its primary function should be to maximize the sale of state-owned assets. The SPF should be motivated to sell these assets at the highest possible prices. It should function as a normal state investment bank that sustains itself through the proceeds generated from asset sales rather than relying on budget funds. 

About investors’ attention towards the real sector

There are three major groups of companies closely monitoring Ukraine today.

The first group are construction companies. There are many of these companies, and to put it simply, they want to know when large-scale construction projects funded by the European Union will begin. They are highly interested in knowing in advance what will be done and when so they can plan and seek subcontractors.

The second category comprises manufacturers of construction-related goods, such as cement, plaster, wooden products, and windows (during Ukraine’s reconstruction, there will likely be a demand for at least a million new windows – a significant volume). Most of these products are not transported over long distances. For example, cement, like many basic materials, is produced on-site. Glass can be transported, but it’s often more cost-effective to manufacture it locally. Many of these companies are not yet ready to invest and are waiting for the war to end. However, some are already prepared to come in, and we can expect non-public investments in 2024 (likely not publicly announced to avoid attracting unwanted Russian Shahed attacks).

The third category includes agricultural enterprises and agro-processing businesses. In the last 3-4 years, this has been a relatively high-margin business. For instance, it takes 20-25 kg of wheat to produce 1 kg of chicken meat. Exporting 1 kg of chicken meat is much easier than transporting 20-25 kg of wheat. Plus, from a security standpoint, when we’re talking about hectares of land far from the frontlines, the losses from a potential Shahed attack are generally lower compared to industrial enterprises.

Source – https://voxukraine.org/en/when-will-investors-arrive-and-what-will-they-invest-in-the-whats-up-with-the-economy-podcast-with-serhii-budkin

Work plan upon the project of infrastructure renewal in Odesa Region 

Recovery Ukraine project has been launched in Interlegal nearly a year ago. As an Ukrainian company, we have faced the current events very hard, and we are doing all the best efforts to make Ukraine bloom even brighter after our victory. 

In the framework of such project, our team has held meetings aimed to discuss potential investments into restoration of our motherland. 

Let us share news about such a meeting. 

On October 26, 2023, Interlegal associate attorney Dmytro Ochkolias jointly with Japanese colleagues (Padeco) held a meeting with Mustafa Naiem, Director of the State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Ukraine’s Infrastructure. The discussion concerned work plan upon the project of infrastructure renewal in Odesa Region. 

State Agency supported the urgency and the need to implement projects whereon we worked. Next stages will concern prefeasibility study, feasibility study and implementation of infrastructure project itself (i.e. construction). 

We have been cooperating with Padeco and other international consultants (Royal HaskoningDHV, MTBS) upon the issues of construction, development and restoration of infrastructure, in particular, shipping complexes wherein Ukraine and international financial institutions (EBRD, World Bank, IFC, JICA etc.) are concerned. 

We express gratitude to Padeco and Mustafa Naiem for effective cooperation: it’s just start but a significant step. 

If you have any ideas or if you wish to join our investment projects upon recovery of Ukraine – you’ll have a nice meeting with Interlegal partners Arthur Nitsevych and Artem Skorobogatov and associate attorney Dmytro Ochkolias. 

European Parliament greenlights €50 bln Ukraine Facility

Members of the European Parliament at a plenary session in Strasbourg today, October 17, supported the committee’s proposals for the creation of the Ukraine Facility, according to the European Parliament’s press release.

In a vote, Parliament improved and endorsed a proposal for a €50 billion facility to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization for 2024-2027.

It was adopted with 512 votes in favor, 45 against, and 63 abstentions, with “MEPs making the Facility more democratically accountable, encouraging multiparty democracy and Ukraine’s alignment with the requirements for EU accession.”

Why is it necessary

The Ukraine Facility is part of the ongoing revision of the EU’s long-term budget, for which adjustments are needed, as “it has been severely depleted following the multiple crises that have occurred since 2021.”

MEPs insist that the Facility, along with the entire budgetary revision, should be agreed as soon as possible, as there will be no provisions for assistance to Ukraine from 2024. The package should be integrated also into next year’s annual budget, to be negotiated in November.

Ukraine Facility

On 20 June 2023, the Commission proposed to set up a dedicated Ukraine Facility, with up to €50 billion for the period from 2024 to 2027 in the form of grants and loans.

The facility will replace the bilateral support currently provided by the EU under the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument – Global Europe (NDICI) and the €18 billion MFA+ program, which will run out at the end of 2023.

It will integrate the support Ukraine would have received under the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA).

EU financial aid

In June, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the allocation of financial aid of approximately €50 billion for Ukraine.

Later, the EU Council for Economic and Financial Affairs considered the proposals of the EC to review the EU’s multi-year budget for 2024-2027, which includes the establishment of the Ukraine Facility with a budget of €50 billion.

To obtain this funding, Ukraine must present a recovery plan consisting of investment directions and the implementation of reforms, including transformations related to Ukraine’s integration into the EU.

On October 3, the European Parliament approved the review of the EU budget for 2021-2027, which includes provisions to create a special Ukraine Facility with €50 billion.

Source – RBC-Ukraine

Ukraine: how to ‘build back better’?

Ukraine’s recovery will require enormous human and financial resources. As of March 2023, Ukraine’s reconstruction is estimated to cost $411bn, which is 2.6 times Ukraine’s expected 2022 gross domestic product. Over the past 60 years, no single conflict or disaster has involved recovery estimated at more than the Marshall Plan – the equivalent of $140bn by today’s value – so the Ukrainian case will be unique.

The rebuild will impact every sphere of public life. Specific mechanisms are currently being discussed, with legal aspects of the rebuild being one of the key areas for consideration. Below are some other key aspects of the rebuilding of Ukraine to think about.

Time is money (return to pre-war gross domestic product)

It took countries that were able to recover (return to pre-war gross domestic product) after the Second World War five to ten years to do so, but many countries either did not recover at all, or took decades to recover. The average amount of financial aid received by countries for recovery after armed conflicts is 40 per cent of their losses.

To keep it simple, the sources for financial rebuild can be broken down as follows:

  1. the state budget of Ukraine;
  2. donors;
  3. development banks;
  4. confiscated Russian assets and reparations; and
  5. private money from investors.

This matrix clearly illustrates that each source has its limitations and specific solutions.

Ukraine is currently ‘out of budget’ for recovery – everything is spent on social and defence needs. Sovereign donors, international financial institutions and development banks have their terms and time limitations. Other cases of war recovery illustrate that during the first five to ten years the international donors cover only approximately 50 per cent of the country’s budget.

The confiscation of Russian assets is an ever-matchless sanctions enforcement case. The Government of the Netherlands officially agreed to create the ‘Register of Damages Caused to Ukraine by Russian Aggression’. It will contain information about the war-caused damage suffered by individuals, businesses and the state of Ukraine. Under the rules of international law, this Register should become the first component of a comprehensive reparations mechanism designed to ensure that the aggressor state pays Ukraine full reparations for the damage caused. However, the lawyers are well aware that it will take years, not months to get there.

Money is not a guarantee of success

Although the topic of post-war recovery is not extensively covered by academic research, most experts believe that the amount of recovery aid is usually not related to the success or failure of the countries’ further economic development. In simple words, having money for rebuild does not necessarily lead to quick and sustainable reconstruction.

For example, both social and commercial infrastructure is one of the obvious priorities to start with. However, such cases as the rebuilding of Afghanistan or Iraq prove that the quick restoration of infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a ‘magical’ re-start of the economy. When the sums of donor money eventually decrease but the private business has not jump-started yet, there is still a long way to go for a full recovery.

The important aspect of the rebuild

The social considerations are the most critical for the visionary rebuild plan. The stimulation of the private sector is essential, among other things, for the fight against unemployment, depopulation and brain-drain. Rebuilding a better labour market and competitive economy to which out-migrants might want to return is a challenging task for the Ukrainian government.

The  need for complex educational reform and social reform for the reintegration of veterans will thus need to be stimulated by the upgrade of extremely outdated labour and social regulations in Ukraine. So far, Ukraine still uses the outdated Soviet Labour Code of Ukraine, which doesn’t address the needs of a modern digitalised economy, creative industries or inclusivity criteria.

Can the EU integration boost recovery?

Integration into the global economic system has a high impact on recovery and economic development. Ukraine obtained its European Union candidate status on 23 June 2022 and targets a two-year sprint to join the EU.

Recently, the Parliament of Ukraine established a project office to tackle the harmonisation of Ukrainian laws with EU regulations. The four priority areas of the EU integration review of Ukrainian laws have been named: environment; intellectual property; financial services; and consumer rights and health protection. Therefore, those industries will soon face an upgrade of regulation and related compliance tasks.

Is there a magic pill?

Successful cases of rebuilding have one thing in common – the participation of private businesses in recovery (for example, Croatia, or Korea after 1961). Local business, as well as foreign investors, will become the key components to kickstarting the economy while the donor money is still there.

However, there are bottlenecks for private sector engagement. The first one, until the war is over, is the political and war risks insurance. The donors, along with Ukraine and the international insurance industry, will need to offer reasonably priced insurance solutions to allow the bravest to be first to invest. Insurance solutions offered by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and the export-import agencies are being discussed as the only ones available so far, but these are not seen as fundamentally ‘changing the game’. Therefore, many strategic investors will sit and wait until the active war is over.

On the other hand, at present the ‘national champions’ for investments are already identified. The infrastructure and energy sectors – with a focus on renewables and green rebuilding – come first. The traditionally strong sectors, such as IT, agriculture and processing, come after. The new leaders, such as defence and military, healthcare and education, will not be far behind. For example, de-mining, defence technology and prosthetics healthcare are already termed the new sectors to watch and invest in. For some of them, the special tax regime is argued to skyrocket the growth of new industry ecosystems.

Furthermore, the so far unexplored tools to succeed are being discussed by Ukraine. The first one is a sovereign wealth fund of Ukraine, which will manage the cherry-picked state-owned assets according to world-class standards. Another one is an investment fund solution that will help to attract international private money to Ukraine, backed up by state presence and guarantees. The latter was recently announced: Ukraine will work with BlackRock and J.P. Morgan to form a development entity that will become the first investment driver for the first projects and help open Ukraine to worldwide businesses.

Conclusion

So, what could be a ‘game changer’ for a significant inflow of foreign capital? The liberalisation/de-regulation reforms and the rule of law are the key pillars. Tax administration and law enforcement reforms, as well as the continuation of the judiciary reform, are named among top three priorities.

Anti-corruption reform continues to be of the highest priority, as it was long overdue even before the war. Actually, it is the name for more complex problems of a formerly socialist developing economy – inefficient non-digital government services, overcrowded and ineffective public service with uncompetitive salaries, and bad governance of state-owned enterprises.

With the above commitment, Ukraine could become the most attractive country in Europe (at least) for impact investors. What does it mean to do impact investing? It is an investor with a focus on the companies that create measurable, positive change in addition to generating a bare financial return. Impact investors are also often called ‘ESG investors’ since they consider the environmental, social and corporate governance standards and further impact. Such investors are more than welcomed into Ukraine for obvious reasons.

Ukraine should not rebuild the past, but rather leapfrog for rebuilding the country sustainably, innovatively and inclusively. Becoming a magnet for investors that contribute to the growth of all industries could become the Ukrainian national strategy for decades.

Source – iBanet.org

Denmark will open an office in Mykolaiv, which will be involved in reconstruction 

This week, a new office of the Danish representation will start operating in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, which has taken on the responsibility of reconstruction efforts in the region affected by Russia’s aggression. 

Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen made this announcement while speaking to journalists in Kyiv on Monday before an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers. 

“We will open a new embassy office in Mykolaiv. At the request of President Zelensky, we have taken on special responsibility for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv and this specific region,” he stated. 

The minister noted that the new office of the Danish diplomatic mission will start its work in Mykolaiv later this week. 

“I hope this meeting will demonstrate strong support for Ukraine’s legitimate struggle for freedom and the full return of its territories,” the minister added while commenting on the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv, which took place outside the EU for the first time. 

Denmark and the Mykolaiv region signed a memorandum on reconstruction in March of this year. 

Denmark will open an office in Mykolaiv, which will be involved in reconstruction 

This week, a new office of the Danish representation will start operating in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, which has taken on the responsibility of reconstruction efforts in the region affected by Russia’s aggression. 

Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen made this announcement while speaking to journalists in Kyiv on Monday before an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers. 

“We will open a new embassy office in Mykolaiv. At the request of President Zelensky, we have taken on special responsibility for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv and this specific region,” he stated. 

The minister noted that the new office of the Danish diplomatic mission will start its work in Mykolaiv later this week. 

“I hope this meeting will demonstrate strong support for Ukraine’s legitimate struggle for freedom and the full return of its territories,” the minister added while commenting on the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv, which took place outside the EU for the first time. 

Denmark and the Mykolaiv region signed a memorandum on reconstruction in March of this year. 

Source – The Odessa Journal

International Register of Damage

What is the Register of Damage, and how does it work with the Diia Register? How to get there, with what money, and according to what estimate will compensations be made to the victims? We talked about these pressing issues with the executive director of the International Registry of Damage, Markiyan Klyuchkovskyi.

  • On June 27, 2023, the member states of the International Register of Damages Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation Against Ukraine appointed Markiyan Klyuchkovskyi as the Executive Director of the Register.
  • Previously, Markiyan was a partner at Asters, where he co-chaired the practice of international arbitration and litigation, and after the full-scale invasion of Russia, he became a member of the working group on the development and implementation of international legal remedies for compensation for damages caused to Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation.

Olya Veretilnyk (Dead Lawyers Society) entered into a criminal conspiracy with Yura Gaidai (Centre for Economic Strategy) in order to record an interview with Markiyan. This intention was defiantly implemented.

What is the International Register of Damage, and why did you create it?

There is no mechanism that actually exists today; it needs to be created from scratch. There are many reasons for this. One of them is Russia’s right to veto in the UN Security Council. And, obviously, Russia’s lack of consent to voluntarily cooperate in creating such a mechanism. And this is not an easy way because we do not have the opportunity to rely on any existing precedent in such work.

In the spring of 2022, a group of lawyers in which I was engaged began work on the creation of what we call a compensation mechanism for Ukraine, or a reparation mechanism.

The compensation mechanism we offer consists of three components.

The first component is, in fact, a register of damage, which should record information about losses, damages, injuries, and other similar things that Ukraine and Ukrainians suffered during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The second component of this mechanism is the compensation commission. This is the body that will review these stigmas and decide how much damages should be compensated in each specific case.

And the third component is the compensation fund, which accumulates funds from which, in fact, these payments will be made. This fund will be filled either by Russia voluntarily, or we will get to the Russian assets on our own and collect them for the benefit of this fund.

The Register of Damage is only the first component of this mechanism. We announced its creation in May this year. Now, we are preparing for its full operational launch so that people, companies, and government bodies can register their requirements there.

Here it is worth emphasizing that both Ukraine and other countries understand very well that the register itself, no matter how cool it is, is meaningless. This damage database does nothing for actual damages. That is why it is written in the Charter of the Register that this is only the first component of the compensation mechanism, and the states will move towards the creation of its other components.

That is, in addition to the register itself, there will be a commission that will evaluate the information in the register, but it is not there yet.

Yes, absolutely. This is a quasi-judicial body that will consider all claims. Essentially, assess their credibility, assess the amount of damage caused in each specific case, and award the amount to be compensated.

It really isn’t there yet; negotiations are currently underway. This is a difficult process because we have nothing to rely on as a direct precedent when such a mechanism would be created without the consent of the opposite party.

When will it be possible to submit information about the causing of damages, who can do it, and in what format, if it already exists?

According to our plan and according to the rules described in the Charter, citizens, companies, and the state of Ukraine can submit complaints and information about damages. Roughly speaking, any person who has suffered the damage can do it.

This will all be made exclusively in digital form through a platform that is currently being created.

As soon as this digital platform or at least its first components are ready, we will immediately open the window for submission of claims. Optimistically, this should happen by the end of the year. Perhaps this is too optimistic, and we will look at the beginning of the next one, but we are moving as quickly as possible so that while the evidence of everything that is happening in Ukraine is still fresh, people, companies, and the state have the opportunity to record everything.

There is now an option to apply for registration of damage via Diia – is this some sort of parallel process to what is happening with the International Register of Damage?

They cannot be called completely parallel because they pursue slightly different goals.

Although this mechanism via Diia you mentioned is a register of damaged and destroyed property, what is paid on it is called compensation, but in reality, it is not compensation at all.

This, in general, is the Ukrainian state providing a helping hand to those who need it most for the reconstruction of housing and other property. And provides relatively small amounts for this, let’s say so. But at the same time, this register is such an aggregator and a source of information about damages, at least in certain segments of the economy, specifically with reference to the persons who suffered.

This mechanism really has several connections with the international register we are talking about. First, you rightly say it is a kind of information aggregator. However, it will not automatically flow or transfer from one place to another. But since all this information is digital, it is much easier to do.

Moreover, we communicate a lot with the developers of the register of damaged and destroyed property, actually from a technical point of view, to make the systems as compatible as possible with each other so that this process is as simple and painless as possible.

The second moment in which they interact with each other is that to the extent that the state pays compensation to citizens, it receives the right to claim the aggressor state for the same amounts.

So, is this a kind of regression?

A kind of regression, absolutely. Although, of course, if citizens believe that their losses are greater than what they have been compensated [they can contact the register].

The Ukrainian state has the unconditional right and all the possibilities to claim damages from Russia to register these claims already in the International Register. That’s why I say that these are not exactly parallel things; they have some compatibility, but in a global sense, they just pursue different goals. We are trying to make them as compatible as possible and use the existing developments.

How do you plan to verify the information on the causing of damage?

In the next few months, the so-called Register Council will be appointed. These are seven independent specialists who will, among other things, determine the various rules and procedures of the Register, including the requirements for the submission of claims in various categories, the requirements for their evidence, and the evaluation. Therefore, it will be possible to talk about more specific rules when they are ready.

If you look at this topic from a bird’s eye view, one of the biggest challenges of the entire compensation mechanism is the number of claims: without exaggeration, we expect millions of claims. If we consider them one by one, it will take tens or even hundreds of years. Therefore, we should make some kind of more automated system for reviewing and evaluating claims, where possible.

For example, in Mariupol, there are thousands of victims whose complaints about the damage or destruction of homes will be quite similar. For example, when the UN Compensation Commission considered the consequences of Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait, it assigned a value, so to speak, to each claim. If this is extrapolated based on our reality, then it will conventionally mean that a square meter in an apartment in Mariupol is valued at a certain amount of money. Accordingly, the owner of a 100-meter apartment can automatically count on compensation, which is determined mathematically.

Where we are talking about more unique cases, there, of course, everything will happen differently; there will be an assessment of the actual damage directly. I am talking about this now very preliminarily because all these rules and approaches will still be defined in the future. But this is how we aim to work.

I can already sense that my next question is also premature because there is no order. Many have already applied to Ukrainian courts and the ECtHR for damages. It is clear that there will be a lot of court decisions where all these losses are recorded. Will this in any way affect the level of reliability of the information on the damage?

There is no specific rule yet; they will all be formed in the coming months. Our working vision of this matter is as follows: court and arbitration decisions will be taken into account for one or another circumstance, but they will not have prejudice.

That is, if a plaintiff comes with a Ukrainian court decision against Russia for 100 billion dollars, roughly speaking, this does not mean that it is automatically converted into a claim that will be satisfied. It will be evaluated, in particular, from the point of view of whether the defendant, whoever it was, participated in the trial, whether it was informed, how the trial was conducted, and how objective it was.

But such a legal assessment will take place already at the stage of the compensation commission; at the very first stage of entry into the register, it will be sufficient to submit only a court or arbitration decision.

And with regard to the most basic element of this mechanism – the fund from which all this should be reimbursed. How do you assess the prospects for its creation and raising?

I assess the prospects of creating a fund very well. It is an integral part of the mechanism; without it, the mechanism has no meaning. Because just as the register will turn into an ordinary database, the decision of the compensation commission without real payment is just a piece of paper. We don’t want that. Therefore, it will be created, and it must be filled.

There are questions here, of course.

In an ideal world, the aggressor state will come to its senses, will want to return to the civilized framework of relations in the world, either through a peace treaty or in some other way, and will agree to fill this fund on its own. To do this with direct financial infusions, some share of the income of Russian oil and gas exports, for example. There are even certain advantages in this because, in this way, the fund can be replenished indefinitely until all claimants are satisfied without any ceiling, without any maximum of this compensation.

But for us, the default scenario is that Russia will not do it voluntarily. That is why we are currently focusing our attention on Russian assets, searching for them and developing mechanisms for compensation so that Ukrainian claimants who have suffered damage will be compensated with them.

I will say obvious things now: this work is difficult. The reactions of other countries, in particular the reactions of the EU and Germany, are all public; they all proceed from the fact that this is unprecedentedly difficult and will have incomprehensible consequences.

Our answer is that the consequences of a situation where a state that violated the basic principles of international law remains unpunished are just as unclear. Therefore, we are working on this, and in the international legal format, we are looking for a solution to issues such as sovereign immunity, which, in theory, should protect the sovereign funds of states located abroad.

At the level of the European Commission, the specific idea of using frozen Russian funds has been discussed for quite some time. In the USA, not so long ago, a draft law was registered that provides for the collection and confiscation of state funds for the purposes of the compensation mechanism. This work is going on, and sooner or later, it will lead to its result. Everyone perfectly understands that if Russia does not pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, then this burden will fall on the world community.

I recently spoke with Roman Kachur, now a deputy executive director on the World Bank’s Board of Directors, and it is he who is less optimistic about the prospects for such large-scale reparations. How do you see this process? As far as I understand, one of the main obstacles to starting to effectively recover the frozen assets of the Russian Federation, and perhaps some other assets that are currently in free circulation, is the fear of creating precedents. To what extent do you think that these are valid arguments, or is it rather a political argument in order to avoid a complicated, unpleasant process, or simply not to transfer assets to Ukraine that can work on the economy of certain Western countries, especially those that in previous years received significant benefit from the fact that tens and hundreds of billions of Russian dollars are parked there.

I can’t say it’s either one thing or another. These are not mutually exclusive things. These are really important legal issues. But so are political experiences, which are really focused on the issue of setting such a precedent.

If we look at it from a purely legal point of view, then indeed, in international law, such things are not done without the consent of another state, whatever it may be. The only way to do this without the consent of another state is through the UN Security Council. This path is, of course, blocked.

We proceed from the fact that the obligation to pay reparations for violations of international law already exists. It exists, no one disputes it, and it arises at the moment when a state commits a violation of international law. That is, Russia is already guilty.

The question is to determine the extent of this damage and find a way to repay it.

Therefore, from a legal point of view, we believe that we already have all the arguments and all the bricks of this construction. All of them, in general, have either already been presented to our partners or are in the process of being presented, so to speak. But in general, this construction already exists.

As for political considerations, we feel it very well. Each state, first of all, looks at itself, at its problems, and extrapolates these extraordinary solutions to itself and to the circumstances in which it takes part. And indeed, since we are doing it in defiance of the same accepted rules that nothing can be done without the consent of the state to which it is concerned, it creates a little discomfort.

But our answer to this is that we look at this situation as narrowly as possible. We are not saying that any violation of international law should be compensated in this way. We are talking about one of the grossest, most powerful, so to speak, violations – aggression in violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter. This fact was recognized by 141 votes of countries at a special session of the UN General Assembly, in relation to which the UN International Court of Justice issued protective measures, effectively recognizing the Russian invasion as illegal obliging Russia to withdraw its troops.

We look at all these circumstances and say, look, we want to apply such a compensation procedure only in the case when 1, 2, 3, 4 we can put all four ticks. And such situations, in fact, since the creation of the UN, by and large, have not happened. This is just the situation we already mentioned when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Then, there was a reaction at the UN Security Council level, and appropriate measures were taken. That’s why we take it easy.

I don’t really like to draw parallels with arms deliveries because these are, after all, completely different worlds – weapons and international law. But somewhere, these parallels still exist. Because what a few months ago, not to mention two years ago, seemed completely unreal, politically unacceptable, and inadmissible for safety is today a reality.

And we see the same gradual change of position, softening of the position of our fellow partners on the issues of creating a commission mechanism. At first, it caused discomfort and timidity.

Now, everyone is talking about it, and a long time ago, the question of whether it can be done has already passed to the question of how to do it. And this is exactly what applies to compensation through the confiscation of Russian assets. Sorry for such a long answer.

Well, that is, summarizing, if you manage to build this logical chain, starting from actions and responsibility for them, and confirming through existing legal mechanisms that this is the responsibility of the Russian Federation for aggression, for damages, and so on, then this should just relieve the tension parts of politicians and lawyers who say that we are setting a precedent for voluntary asset recovery. And this will scare away other investors, perhaps dubious funds, and so on.

Absolutely right. And more, here we still have to talk about the issue of fundamental basic values.

Because if we talk about the precedent, then, in our opinion, the precedent will be much worse if, relying on these formal rules of international law, the aggressor state, which commits the worst violation of international law imaginable, avoids responsibility.

That is, a situation arises when the state violates some rules of international law but hides this behind others to avoid responsibility. This is not correct. I am sure that there are states in the world that are looking at this situation from the point of view of assessing the possible consequences of their actions. Therefore, in this sense, the precedent can also be bad; it should be avoided.

I think this is a very important argument. As the lack of punishment creates threats of further destabilization, bold or unfounded steps by other countries, and unfounded aggressions, and these are all risks, and risks are higher transaction costs, damage to the growth of the world economy, and this, in fact, is what probable 95% of the world society are not interested in.

We see that the world has become so globalized and interconnected that the concept of such a local conflict actually no longer exists. Because we see how the attack on Ukraine, the aggression against Ukraine, has consequences in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and any other conflict can have consequences in exactly the same way.

Therefore, we also look at our concept from the point of view that it is a matter of protecting international law, protecting the international rules-based order, and protecting the world order in which we live, including from an economic point of view.

Then, as far as I understood from your explanation, the following steps should be taken now: in the states or in their associations, in which there is some property of Russians, there should be adopted that somehow allows this property to be confiscated and given to Ukraine. Then, there should be an international treaty that describes how this Fund is created and how this money is directed to reparations.

Basically, yes, it is possible to discuss the order in which it should take place, whether first the international agreement and then the national legislation, or vice versa. But in general, yes, all these actions must be taken; we are talking about a set of actions both in the context of international law and in the context of national legislation in each of the countries involved in this process. Therefore, there will be a lot of choreography here.

How long can it take?

I will speak in platitudes now; forecasts are a very ungrateful thing. I will take an example from the relatively recent past. On May 18, 2022, President Zelenskyi created a working group of lawyers to work on the development and implementation of a compensation mechanism.

Half a year after that, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on reparations for Ukraine, in which it recognized the need for a compensation mechanism and recommended the creation of a register of damage. Half a year later, two days before the anniversary of the presidential decree, the creation of the register was already announced.

In terms of international law, this is the third cosmic speed, if not faster.

Such things have never happened so quickly before. We have a certain high bar for the pace we want to keep going forward. Whether it will be possible to do it, I will say that only the future knows the answer.

We need to find a common denominator in the creation of a compensation mechanism that will be agreed upon by many important states for us, for each of which this is the first time in this format. Therefore, I am not ready to indicate any time frame. Here, everything happens in the ASAP mode, as soon as possible.

Only our deadlines are the toughest.

Source – DeadLawyers.org

Ukraine: Improving regulation of foreign branches and representative offices

On 3 September 2023, the Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Regulation of Activities of Separate Subdivisions of a Legal Entity Established in Accordance with the Laws of a Foreign State” No. 3257-IX dated 14 July 2023 (“Law“) came into effect.

Key highlights

The Law is developed to streamline various aspects of the state registration and liquidation procedures for representative offices and enable the establishment of full-fledged branches of foreign companies operating in Ukraine. The majority of its provisions pertaining to the changes detailed below will become effective from 3 September 2024.

Key provisions:

The Law introduces several noteworthy changes in relation to branches and representative offices of foreign companies in Ukraine, as follows:

  • State-registration related changes:
    • The authority for the state registration of representative offices will be transferred from the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine to state registrars.
    • The time frame for state registration will be reduced from 20 business days to just 5 business days.
    • The exclusive set of documents and information required for state registration of a representative office will be defined in the law. Representative offices will now be required to have a statutory document (regulation) and submit information on the ownership structure of the founding foreign company and details about its ultimate beneficial owner to the state registrar.
    • Similar to legal entities, the principal information on foreign branches and representative offices will be generally accessible in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs and Public Organizations.
  • Additional changes:
    • Ukrainian law will prescribe the liquidation procedure for branches and representative offices, which is similar to the liquidation process for legal entities. Where there are insufficient funds to meet creditors’ claims during the liquidation process, the liquidation commission will be authorized to sell the assets of a branch or representative office. If the value of underlying assets proves to be insufficient, creditors will have the right to seek satisfaction from the assets of the founding foreign company.
    • Certain amendments related to the regulation of branches and representative offices of foreign banks will be introduced into the Law of Ukraine “On Banks and Banking Activities.”
    • The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is responsible for transferring information on the existing branches and representative offices of foreign companies from the Ministry of Economy to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs and Public Organizations.

Source – Lexology.com

The World Bank insured the first private investor in Ukraine against war risks 

The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency of the World Bank (MIGA) provided the first investment guarantee for private investors of Ukraine, as reported by press service of the Ministry of Finance. 

The Ministry explains, MIGA guarantee gives an important signal to international investors regarding activation of war risk insurance in Ukraine. 

Insurance amounting up to $9.1 million was provided for the M10 Industrial Park project in Lviv owned by UIPH, the majority shareholder of Dragon Capital. 

The guarantee is provided for financing construction and operation of the warehouse complex and related infrastructure in the M10 industrial park. The insurance covers war risks for the period of 10 years. 

Yulia Svyrydenko, the Minister of Economy, comments, “Many Ukrainian and foreign companies will be able to submit the bids and to receive new guarantees”. 

  • On April 18, 2023, Japan was the first to contribute costs to cover war risks when investing in Ukraine. 
  • On June 21, the German bank increased its insurance guarantees for war risks in Ukraine. 
  • On August 7, Germany extended guarantees to its companies investing in Ukraine. 

Source – Finance.liga.net

Expansion of Solidarity Pathways: EU granted Ukraine direct access to funding

 The European Union allowed Ukraine to independently submit applications for financing infrastructure projects related to expansion of the main export routes (so-called Solidarity Routes, as reported by the Recovery Agency press service. 

Previously Ukraine could receive funds from the EU for modernization of Solidarity Pathways only by means of participation in the project of one of the EU member states. 

Adina-Ioana Vălean, the EU Transport Commissioner, explains, “For the first time, Ukraine will be able to apply for financing of infrastructure projects along the Solidarity Pathways without the need for EU partners. It can do this independently as an equal partner within the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). Ukraine can apply on the same grounds as any other EU member state”. She adds that such new opportunities also apply to Moldova. 

Back in May 2022, the European Commission published a set of measures under the Solidarity Pathways initiative which include, inter alia, providibg to checkpoints equipment and other technical facilities and updating maps of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). 

In June 2023, Ukraine signed an agreement with the EU on participation in the CEF program, which allowed us to participate in competitions for transport infrastructure development jointly with partners – the EU member states with the EU financial support. 

In the framework of the CEF program, the Recovery Agency is already participating in joint projects with Poland, Hungary and Romania – all of them aimed at improving capacity of crossing points with the EU member states. 

Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) is the EU fund created in 2014 for infrastructure investments (in particular, Trans-European Networks TEN-T) across the EU in transport, energy, digital and telecommunication projects aimed to expand connections between the EU member states. It provides funds through grants, financial guarantees and project bonds. 

Source – Finance.liga.net

EXTENTION OF TRANSPORT VISA-FREE REGIME BETWEEN UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA 

Simplified transportation regime will be valid for the next two years.

Ukraine and Moldova extended transport visa-free regime till late 2025.

TTS writes, the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine reported on joint decision with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development of the Republic of Moldova to extend the Agreement on the Liberalization of Road Freight Transportation between the countries till late 2025.

This agreement provides the possibility of bilateral and transit transportation by road without special permits. The protocol jointly with decision to extend the effect of liberalization was signed following the results of the meeting of the Ukrainian-Moldovan Joint Commission on international road transport on September 13-14.

We remind that previously the protocol was signed with the Ministry of Transport of Norway on the possibility of cargo transportation without the need to obtain permits. Transport visa-free regime will apply to trucks of the Euro-5 standard and above.

Today, liberalization cargo transportations is valid in 35 countries.

Interlegal’s comment (Dmytro Ochkolyas, leading lawyer, attorney):

Now, it is possible to transport cargo across the continental Ukraine to Reni Sea Port solely by car. However, from the logistic aspect it is possible to transport cargo through Moldova. It is facilitated by geographic features of Bessarabia, as well as by logistic priorities in ex-USSR. Although independent Ukraine drafted several projects of railways to Reni Sea Port, non of them was implemented. Therefore, safe and cheap railway transportation through Moldova – that’s one of the ways to facilitate Ukrainian grain export in the wartime!
Please do not hesitate to apply to Interlegal upon any issues concerning specifications of Ukrainian infrastructure.